Algoma steel

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What are your thoughts on Algoma steel and being listed on the TSX?
And the deal that’s being proposed …

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Asked on May 25, 2021 8:55 am
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Hey there,
Algoma steel is going to be publicly listed on both the TSX and NASDAQ via Special Acquisition Corp (SPAC). Legato Merger Crop (LEGO on the NASDAQ) has signed an agreement to take the company public in a ~$1.7B deal (1.9 x adjusted 2021 EBITDA).

Following completion of the transaction, Algoma's current shareholders and management team will hold ~74% of the combined company, PIPE investors will hold ~7% and Legato's current stockholders will hold ~19% of the combined company's common shares.

It is important to note that the deal is not yet finalized and its possible the deal falls through - has done so many times in the SPAC world. The timing to take Algoma Steel public is fortunate, as steel prices are the highest they've been in a decade. It is however, a very cyclical industry and Algoma Steel itself has gone through many ups and downs. The company filed for bankcruptcy in both 2004 and 2015 which is a testament to the cyclical nature of steel.

While it could be an interesting company, i'm not a big fan of companies that are highly dependent on the price of a single commodity - especially when said commodity is trading near record highs. Algoma will be commanding a premium here, but there is a real risk that steel prices drop. I like that the company is aiming to be a green steel producer, but it will still be subject to the same macro-economic conditions has it has been over the past 20 years - in which it declared bankruptcy twice.

I'd approach with caution here. Of note, you can get exposure to the company by simply buying LEGO on the Nasdaq, its warrants or units (which include 1 common share + 1warrant at a strike price of 11.50).
Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on May 26, 2021 4:41 am