BRK for late stage growth?

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Hi Dan, just curious about your views on Berkshire Hathaway as a new holding in this phase of the cycle? Buffet himself has vocalised his doubts about the fund’s ability to continue outperforming at it’s current and future size. I tend to agree and believe that following a solid run of consistent outperformance over the past couple of decades, BRK will fall back to close to market returns for the following few decades. However, I also believe we’re at the part of the cycle that sees value stocks outperform. Interested in your views. Love the platform! Thanks

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Asked on December 30, 2025 3:18 am
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Great points re risk adjusted return and cash buffer, totally agree. I don’t hold Berkshire currently so am trying to consider if it’s worth adding at this stage of the cycle, but am beginning to see opportunities for asymmetry against my current holdings. Appreciate the prompt response!

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Posted by nushka@live.com
Answered on December 30, 2025 9:19 am
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It's funny, Mark Leonard before he had resigned from Constellation Software mentioned the same thing. He said if the fund was to continue outperforming, it would need to have a "much lower share price" than it does now. He said this for numerous years, and Constellation kept on outperforming. Now, a lot of that performance has been wiped out now, but that is a completely separate issue. That is more so from the fears of AI wiping out the business.

Buffett has famously said that "size is the enemy of outperformance," and at a nearly $1 trillion market cap, the law of large numbers is certainly working against Berkshire.

Ultimately, the case for Berkshire today isn't that it will beat the market, but that it provides superior risk-adjusted returns, which is excellent for a late stage portfolio. If it ends up beating the market, that is an added bonus.

If we are indeed entering a cycle where value outperforms, whether that be through flat markets or even a large correction or crash, Berkshire’s cash hoard will come into play as well. In this event, we could see it outperform moving forward because it will be able to deploy some of at $300B+ in cash into depressed assets, which can have long-lasting impacts on results.

I'm a huge fan of Berkshire, as you can tell by my portfolio it's one of my larger positions. In a risk-on market, it won't perform as well as some other options. However, it has proven it can perform in pretty much any market. Same can't be said for a lot of high beta options.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on December 30, 2025 9:12 am