CGX CINEPLEX INC

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Hey guys,

I’ll start by saying the research, data, and insight on here is amazing.

(Im an X financial planner at Scotia and RBC for 7 years before moving into real-estate,
My entire Stock portfolio is up around 7% with your picks and recommendations (other than the Trust Units with RioCan but I’m confident they are coming back strong)

I know CGX is still on the weekly Top Stocks pick but it been a big-time loser for me as I’m down around 20%

my Average Cost is 15.0109   :/ – its only 1000 bucks but it still hurts lol

What are your thoughts on them and why are they still considered such a strong buy?

Is it just based on the value lost during covid?

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Asked on May 23, 2020 9:33 am
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Hi there,

Glad you are enjoying what we have to offer.

With respect to CGX, it is important to note that our screeners take into account both forward looking and historical data. Ratios such as P/S, P/E, PEG (to an extent), etc...these are all based on historical results.

Since the last quarter only included a fraction of the COVID-19 impacts, these ratios etc are still somewhat skewed. In Cineplex's case, it has been one of the hardest hit companies on the index, so next quarter won't be pretty. That being said, if your average cost is $15 - you are doing not bad. In a year from now, I have a hard time believing CGX will be low $15 per share, if there is no significant set back.

If we gradually re-open from here without any future major shutdown, it will look like a steal in a few years from now. Keep in mind, that it has added risk as we don't know if customers will flock back to theatres - or avoid them. It is a real concern and the outlook truly is unknown.

In my opinion, it is still a high risk stock that will be subject to considerable volatility over the next six months. As a reminder, there is still an outside chance that Cineworld closes on its acquisition @$34.00 per share. Both companies have been saying the right things. I find it doubtful, but you'd be looking at more than a double from your current cost basis.

The deal has been extended into June to get regulatory approval and there is a key caveat - Cineplex must keep its debt level below $725 million. If it goes above, Cineworld has an out as per the agreement. If it can keep the debt below this level, there may be yet a chance the transaction closes. The longer regulation approvals take, the greater the risk Cineplex goes over that level. Something to consider.

Mat

(Full disclosure: I am long CGX)

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on May 23, 2020 4:59 pm