Unfortunately a bit to cyclical for me to ever want to buy a position. Underlying company is strong. Rock-solid margins, strong returns on capital, great balance sheet.
I just worry that the cyclical nature of Bitcoin will likely lead to large volatility in earnings. Even though crypto is now becoming more established, it is still a highly speculative investment and is really prone to the risk on/risk off nature of the markets.
If we look to the company's revenue in 2021, the last speculative mania, it fell off a cliff in 2022, by more than 50%. Right now we're heading into another surge in revenue and if the US enters a recession, I would say discretionary capital may dry up and not as many people may trade crypto, which could impact them.
Too cyclical for me overall. I wouldn't look to it until crypto become much more established and revenue streams were consistent. Right now, Coinbase profits extensively off it being a heavily traded/gambled on asset, which is not good when cash flows from retail are low.