Hi there,
At this point, we do not believe CPX's dividend is in danger. In 2019, the dividend accounted for only 35% of adjusted funds from operations (AFFO). This is down from 44.9% in 2018.
Prior to COVID-19, the company guided to 2020 AFFO being in a similar range to that of 2020 (~$525 million). So, it would take an almost 65% hit to AFFO in order for coverage to reach near 100%. Considering 78% of energy is contracted in 2020, although not impossible - it is unlikely that AFFO will be impacted to such a degree.
Likewise, in 2019 it spend $75 million on buybacks. I suspect these will be suspended before the dividend is touched. Likewise, dividend growth may be stunted this year.
In the industry, there has yet to be any announcements of dividend cuts or suspensions. This is likely because of strong regulated and contracted cash flows. Now, we can't say never because COVID-19 has changed everything. Its high exposure to Alberta is also a headwind that could hurt the company.
Had the company been in dire straights however, I would have expected an announcement by now. Since mid-March, they have announced the completion of an acquisition and the date for first their AGM (May 1) and first quarter results (May 4).
As a CPX shareholder myself, I will be paying attention to these two events but am not worried. At least not yet.
Mat