Do you have any insights on the followoing: Cloudflare Inc. (NET) & Amplitude Inc. (AMPL).

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Asked on January 24, 2023 7:43 am
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Hey there,

Cloudfare is one of those tech stocks that got obliterated this past year. Not surprising, since it falls under the high growth but not yet profitable category. These types are always the first to really take a hit when the going gets tough. On the flip side, they can also outperform in a risk-on environment. The problem is that I don't see that environment returning any time soon. Not to mention, Cloudfare isn't exactly cheap trading at almost 17x sales and an EV/EBITDA of 25.54 which is about 3x the industry average. On the bright side it does have strong expected growth rates in the 40%+ range. That said, it has been missing growth forecasts lately, so there are some warnings sings that growth may be slowing. For those with a higher risk tolerance, it is one certainly worth watching but I wouldn't necessarily rush into it today.

As for Amplitude, I'll admit I don't know much about this one. However, their chart looks horrendous so I dug a little into that one-time even that caused their share price to crater and go nowhere since. The company IPO'ed during the euphoria of 2021 and every since it posted poor results in early 2022, it has struggled to gain any traction. Upon further research, while revenue is growing, it doesn't look like margins will improve anytime soon. This once again relates back to the 'risk off' sentiment we are currently experience. IN such periods, poor margins and low profitability is not attractive to investors. Not only that, the company is burning through cash with working capital down 30% YoY and it is generating negative operational and free cash flow - that isn't a good signs. While it has plenty of cash on hand to sustain current cash burn, it can't last forever. This one really doesn't appeal to me all that much TBH. While it is reasonably priced, there isn't anything that entices me to put it on my watch list or anything.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on January 26, 2023 5:51 am