Hi Peter,
From what I can tell, the recent surge in share price is two-fold. As you pointed out, strong growth in their home product line and the significant increase in global cycling. As we know, the pandemic has changed our environment, and many have turned to the outdoors activities as a way to pass the time. Cycling is huge in Europe and is seeing increased demand in North America. In effect, they are replacing their gyms and team sports with cycling.
In the mid-to-late summer, there was an article by the Financial Times that spoke about a critical shortage in the industry due to a surge in demand. I believe that this is the 'macro' effect that is really driving the company's share price higher. Couple this with the fact that the company's stock price was absolutely decimated, once news came out it wasn't so bad - it has had a very nice rebound.
Is the price run-up justified? It is a great question. The pandemic has led to strong demand its @home and Dorel Sports products, but its Juvenille segment has struggled and has not yet rebounded. In the first six months of the year - revenue is up by only 0.7%, buyoed by a strong second quarter in which revenue growth was 10.1% YOY. A good portion of that growth came from its @home business which increased revenue and operating profit by 25.7% and 32.2% in the second quarter. Thanks to its strong growth, the segment accounted for ~35% of revenue and 64.8% of total operating profit.
The company has not provided guidance as to what to expect, so it is very difficult to pinpoint if this is a long-term secular trend. Will demand for its products in the home and sports segment remain strong as we return to normal? Perhaps, but maybe not at the same clip. Problem is, no one can say for sure what will happen as we are in uncharted territory. Of note, analysts are expecting flat revenue growth in 2021.
From a valuation perspective - Dorel does look attractively valued here. It is trading at only 11.29 times forward earnings and below price to book (0.66). However, can it deliver? To your point about mismanagement, Dorel doesn't have the greatest track record. Although things have improved lately, it has missed earnings estimates in 8 of the past 12 quarters and 4 of the past 5 years. And these aren't small misses either, it usually comes up short in the 20%+ ranges. This is likely why the markets soured on the company. It is also why 'looks' attractively valued, may not turn out to be attractive if it continues down this path of misses.
In my opinion, Dorel does look decently priced but carries execution risk. If it can deliver, investors will be rewarded. If however, it suffers from lack of execution and comes up short of expectations, it likely won't take long for the markets to once again sour on the company. A cautious approach might be the best one. Perhaps taking a smaller position before earnings and waiting until after earnings to either average up, or double-down (IF one like's what they see).
Mat