Equinox Gold (EQX)

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Starting to re-look at Gold companies. I know there is already great insights on the popular ones such as Kirkland, Agnico Eagle, Barrick, Franco Nevada, and Kinross.

Equinox looked interesting as they had a very solid quarter and seem setup for growth. I believe they recently acquired Premier Gold as well. Any thoughts on this one in terms of potential, valuation and growth. Also corrected recently have a runup in 2020.

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Asked on January 30, 2021 1:01 pm
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Private answer

Hi Jason,

Equinox is one that is certainly looking attractive. Although not the cheapest, it ranks among the best bargains in the industry at the moment. It is trading at only 8.15 times forward earnings, 1.60 times book value and 3.1 times sales - all of which are well below industry averages. Furthermore, it has a PEG ratio of only 0.24 - a clear sign that its share price is not keeping up with expected growth rates. Not to mention, it is trading at an 88% discount to one-year estimates.

Expectation is for revenue and earnings growth between 20-30% next year - which places it in the upper tier in terms of growth expectations. These estimates don't include the Premier acquisition which has not yet closed. Combined with the multiple areas of expansion, it has a leading growth profile.

A couple of things holding the company back - the Premier acquisition while an attractive one is being made with shares - so there will be a dilution effect. Secondly, the company estimates for sustaining costs (AISCs) is $1,000 an oz in 2021. This places it near the higher end of mid-tier and senior gold producers. At today's prices, it is still making good margins but if the price dips materially, you'll likely see Equinox more impacted because of this. Finally, it has one of the highest debt profiles in the industry with a a D/E ratio of 0.4 and $564M in debt - likely because of its high growth profile.

The good news is that most of the projects in its pipeline are all expected to have lower AISCs which should drag its average down year over year. Furthermore, at these gold price levels the company is generating enough cash to fund projects and debt is a non-issue. Once again however, it becomes an issue if the price of gold craters.

Overall, a riskier gold stock with a higher growth profile and a more leveraged balance sheet.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on January 31, 2021 7:12 am
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Private answer

Hi Jason,

Equinox is one that is certainly looking attractive. Although not the cheapest, it ranks among the best bargains in the industry at the moment. It is trading at only 8.15 times forward earnings, 1.60 times book value and 3.1 times sales - all of which are well below industry averages. Furthermore, it has a PEG ratio of only 0.24 - a clear sign that its share price is not keeping up with expected growth rates. Not to mention, it is trading at an 88% discount to one-year estimates.

Expectation is for revenue and earnings growth between 20-30% next year - which places it in the upper tier in terms of growth expectations. These estimates don't include the Premier acquisition which has not yet closed. Combined with the multiple areas of expansion, it has a leading growth profile.

A couple of things holding the company back - the Premier acquisition while an attractive one is being made with shares - so there will be a dilution effect. Secondly, the company estimates for sustaining costs (AISCs) is $1,000 an oz in 2021. This places it near the higher end of mid-tier and senior gold producers. At today's prices, it is still making good margins but if the price dips materially, you'll likely see Equinox more impacted because of this. Finally, it has one of the highest debt profiles in the industry with a a D/E ratio of 0.4 and $564M in debt - likely because of its high growth profile.

The good news is that most of the projects in its pipeline are all expected to have lower AISCs which should drag its average down year over year. Furthermore, at these gold price levels the company is generating enough cash to fund projects and debt is a non-issue. Once again however, it becomes an issue if the price of gold craters.

Overall, a riskier gold stock with a higher growth profile and a more leveraged balance sheet.

Mat

Marked as spam
Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on January 31, 2021 7:12 am