Firan and Geodrill

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Hi,

What do you think of Firan and Geodrill as higher risk investments with, potentially, strong capital gain potential?

Thanks

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Asked on March 5, 2023 2:33 pm
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Hey there! First off, sorry for the delay in reply. These are definitely two companies I had to dig a little deeper on. With Firan being a micro cap company, our focus has not necessarily been on that area of the market in this environment.

The one thing I do like with Firan is it operates in segments where spending is going to be for the most part maintained. Defense and telecom. The company is posting lofty expectations, with goals of 15% annual growth and to double that growth rate through acquisitions and organic growth. Most micro cap companies will fail in their delivery of guidance. They're primarily pushing it out to drive investor interest.

Firan certainly isn't my cup of tea right now. It generates a reasonable amount of free cash flow considering its size, but I'd still rather wait until this company gets more established and has actually put some consistent growth numbers up before I'd put any reliance on its guidance. For example, the company's revenue generation peaked in 2019, and has been on a consistent downwards trend in both the top and bottom line until it finally returned to growth in Fiscal 2022. We don't really want to see this from a micro cap.

I have a lot more time for Geodrill to be honest. The company has a rock solid balance sheet, double digit returns on equity and invested capital, strong margins and is trading at a pretty solid valuation. However, it is highly dependent on the exploration and development of mineral mining sites. I think there will be consistent long term growth here. However there is also the risk that we experience a large slowdown in drilling activity due to falling commodity prices in the event of a recession. This is a micro cap stock as well, and if drilling activity slows down, it will get thumped. On the opposite end of the spectrum, if drilling activity keeps up, there's some solid upside.

I am far from an expert on the current state of precious metal drilling activity though. My thoughts mainly end at the fact that it is a pretty solid company, just one that is exposed to factors outside of its control.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on March 8, 2023 8:45 am