Hi Jeff,
Can't say for certain if ATE will break out or not - I guess it will all depend on their success in Phase III trials. In June, the company announced a share offering at $0.40 per share which is likely weighing down the stock. Typically, these small caps will tap the markets several times to fund trials as they don't have ready access to the debt markets. This weighs on the stock price, albeit temporarily if they continue to show positive results.
With these biotech firms, they move very quickly on positive trial news and crater just as fast on any bad news. ATE will be no different. It is moving to Phase III which is good news. Why didn't it move higher? From what i can tell, the market didn't like the fact that the trial revealed post-dosing liver toxicity rates which were clinically significant and higher than expectations. This appears to have tempered the positive news that TB-346 delivers measurable pain relief.
Bottom line, this is a speculative play for the high-risk investor.
Mat