Is it safe to continue to hold TrueNorth?

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They cut the dividend but I am wondering going forward is their more potential upside or downside?

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Asked on September 29, 2023 6:36 am
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Hey there,

There is some good and bad news here. The bad is that their dividend was unsustainable which led to a cut - the good is that they weren't the only ones. Several in the industry made significant cuts to the distribution. The problem is, REITs are under significant pressure due to the rapid pace of rising rates. If we were in a normal cycle with slow, systematic raises, this wouldn't be a problem for REITs - in fact, they've done quite well in such periods. The problem is rates are rising too fast for them to keep up.

That said, TNT is now trading at 58% discount to NAV - so there is definitely value here. You might be surprised, but it is holding up better than most REITs in the Office Industry. It does however, still have elevated debt ratios compared to its peers. Overall, it has solid tenants, is well diversified and has collected 99.5% of rent, so the issue really does come down to debt load.

I think it's a decent little Offie REIT but it won't really move unless there is a stabilization in rates - which is applicable to all REITs. Once that happens, which could be as far out as 2025, then you could see some meaningful upside industry-wide.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on September 30, 2023 6:47 am