Hey there! Yes, we do have some research on TD Bank as it is on our Dividend Bull List. However, we will not be transitioning this to a new PDF report until they report earnings, which is in a few days.
So realistically, if you want a fresh report of TD Bank, just keep a heads up on the 27th or 28th of May and the new report will likely be done and sent out to members. However, it is highly unlikely we remove TD Bank from the Bull List based on its earnings. So to answer your question yes, we feel it is an excellent option right now.
In terms of discounted cash flow analysis, it isn't really relative to banks from a free cash flow perspective. DCF isn't going to give you any sort of reliable price estimates on banks, as they often run on negative cash flow, because the primary activity of their business is loaning out capital (outflows). The most accurate way to judge a bank is on the price to earnings ratio, as net income will be the most accurate form of profitability. I do see some EPS calculations in there, but I also see some free cash flow ones, so I just wanted to make sure on this part.
I am also very curious as to why you have a discount rate of 15%? If that is your expected return, you might be aiming a bit high there which is why your fair value would be very low. TD Banks weighted average cost of capital is only 4.3% right now.
The way we have always valued banks is simply based on their historical price to earnings ratios. There is a very narrow channel in which TD Bank has historically traded in over the last decade, that being anywhere from 12-12.6 times trailing earnings. As of right now, it is only trading at 11.58 times trailing earnings.
When we have this tight of a range over a decade or longer price span, it is a fairly accurate measure of what the market will pay for TD Bank's earnings. Historically, the Big 5 banks have always returned to their historical valuations. Could it take a big longer now because of recession fears? Possibly. However, TD Bank is one of the strongest financial institutions in North America, one that both Mat and I own and have zero worries about long term.