Hi there,
Of those listed, we consider Suncor (SU) to be one of the best positioned to maintain the dividend and navigate the current bear market. It has low cash costs per barrel ($28) and navigated the last oil bear market (2015-16) without a cut.
Vermilion Energy (VET) has already cut the dividend in half, and another cut may be on the way. At the end of the day a 21% yield (as of writing) is just not good business practice. It is also the highest leveraged of this group. They would be better served conserving cash. It has the least flexibility of this group.
Arc Resources (ARX) is also susceptible to a dividend cut. Once again, a 10% yield isn't sustainable over the long term. On the flip side, it has the lowest debt profile of those listed and is in the twilight of its capital expenditure program. It was expected to already have $200 million less in CAPEX in 2020 which alone was enough to cover the dividend. Arc is also more of a natural gas play, which accounts for approximately three quarters of total production. Natural gas however, has been in a bear market of its own. This is just another headwind.
Finally, Whitecap Resources is also being weighed down by high debt. It has a low interest coverage ratio of 2.73 and may have a hard time covering debt obligations in a cash crunch.
There is no easy way around it. A 20% (or more) drop to oil prices will impact these companies one way or another. Are any on the verge of bankruptcy? Not immediately.
I do worry about the high debt loads in relation to VET and WCP. ARX is a little better positioned and as mentioned is at the tail end of its major capital expenditure program. As such, it has a little more flexibility than the other two.
All three however, are nearing dividend cut territory. In fact, I would argue no dividend is 100% safe in this environment.
At this point, sticking to the majors like Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources is the safest course of action.