Parkland

it sounds a safe bet

With Simpson Oil being in favor of the deal, it does look like there is a decent amount of arbitrage here.

The reason for the arbitrage at this point in time is the regulatory approval. It still could realistically get rejected from Canadian regulators. So, there is still risk here, and if the deal were to fall through Parkland's shares would probably get hit.

If I were to make a prediction, I would imagine this deal does end up going through and if it does, you could make a double digit return in a short amount of time. However, if regulators do reject it, you're likely sitting on a double digit loss.

All up to you and your overall risk tolerance.