Hi there,
The environment couldn't be worse for REAL and by environment, I'm referring to high interest rates. That said, it seems to have found a bottom and has begun to slowly rebound (up 15% over the last year). It is likely that investors are starting to be cautiously optimistic as the narrative towards rates is slowly changing. If we see a bunch of rate cuts later in the year, that can prompt higher renewals.
The pace of rate hikes was not good for REAL which depends on a healthy mortgage market including orginations, renewals and appraisals. At the end of the day, their struggles are part of the macro environment as while they are seeing YoY declines, the broader market declines are actually more pronounced. A sign that REAL is still gaining market share despite the current environment.
For me, this is still a firm hold (I own and old...cost basis is similar to where yours is) and I'm willing to wait it out and see if rate cuts and subsequent environment changes and if they are able to benefit from that. I wouldn't necessarily be buying here as there is just too much uncertainty and the macro is still seeing declines YoY in volumes. I'd like to see that shift first and see if they can capture the shift efficiently before i'd consider adding to my position. I also won't be selling here, because as mentioned, we may be on the cusp of a changing macro if rate cuts happen.
Mat