Hi there,
I recently answered a question about FFH here is was my response a couple of weeks ago:
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Fairfax is definitely what i would call a value play. It hasn't done much over the past handful of years, and in fact it is down 26% over the past five years. There are a number of reasons for this. First and foremost, the last five years have not been kind to insurers in general. So this industry weakness is one of the reasons. Although financials have begun to rebound, the low interest rate environment still makes for a very challenging headwind.
The other factor, is that is a large asset management company that has made some poor investment decisions. Case in point, it is one of Blackberry's largest shareholder and has consistently held on, and even reinvested in the company for years. There have been several other poor investments over the years which has held the company back.
Combine the two, and this is the main reason for its underperformance. Can it rebound - absolutely and I think the downside is likely limited. I just think the upside is limited here (at least on the insurance side) and it will need some strong outperformance on the asset management side to make up for the low interest rate headwind. If the company turns the AM segment around and rates start to rise, it will likely be a very strong performer.
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Since this response, the company' stock price is up by mid-single digits. I don't think much has changed outside of the fact that insurers are started get a little more traction in the markets despite headwinds that remain. You are right that it is now in overbought territory, and while this is a technical signal that it may be due for a short term drop, as you pointed out there may be other factors that keep it from dropping. The company's EX dividend date is Jan 20, so you would likely see the company's share price drop by around $10 on that day.
This is very similar to the situation with ENGH - you can buy now, and collect the dividend or wait and see what happens until post ex date. Bottom line, if you like the long term prospectus of the company, nickel and diming here won't make much of a difference over the long term.
Mat