Thoughts on MOGO.TO

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I’m a big believer in the Fintech space, and have a large position in SQ. I notice that MOGO.TO seems to be starting down the same path and just announced a partnership with GSY.TO, another one of your favorite stocks. I realize this might be a bit speculative and would treat any position as such, but interested in your thoughts.

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Asked on July 29, 2020 7:54 am
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To be honest, I am fairly new to MOGO - given this, it will be a high level overview.

It is definitely a microcap, and has just over a million customers under its belt. Looks like they offer personal loans, credit monitoring and other similar type of products. They also recently launched a VISA prepaid card.

The company's motto is interesting - a focus on enabling customers to achieve Zero Debt which is counter-intuitive to the big lenders. This however, is the point and sets them apart. I like this approach.

Likewise, they seem to be very focused on Net Zero Carbon Footprint. Once again, another differentiating factor if companies can lead they can achieve this through Mogo's initiatives, it can be an interesting growth factor.

This being said, it hasn't performed well. I is down by 57% since its IPO in 2016. Revenue and earnings have been spotty over this period as well. In 2019, core revenue grew by 33% and adjusted EBITDA grew by 72% over 2018. On the flip side, total revenue was up only 6% . In the first quarter of 2020, core revenue was up 12% and total revenue actually decreased by 7%.

Preliminary Q2 results point to revenue of $10.4 million at the mid-rage, a steep decline from the $16.4 million posted in the second quarter of 2019. On the positive, it expects cash flow of $6.75 million at the mid-range, up from previous guidance.

It seems like the markets liked what they say, as the share price jumpe by 53% since preliminary announced Q2 results. I'm assuming this means it was better than expected despite the YOY drop in revenue.

This is still a company with a lot to prove. It has a spotty history of delivering and the expectation from analysts is for negative revenue growth of 27% in 2019 and -22% in 2021. It also is not expected to be profitable until at least 2022 if not later.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on July 29, 2020 3:02 pm