What has been holding back Visa?

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Visa has been on a slow slide since June. It looks like its longest drawdown since 2021/22. Could it just be the rotation out of Blue Chips into AI, in which case shouldn’t there have been a tick upwards in Visa from the AI “reset”?

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Asked on December 8, 2025 10:18 am
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Economic uncertainty, for the most part. Liberation day and the integration of tariffs has always been a risk to the economy. Throw in the fact consumers are scaling back spending in a big way and you get prolonged downturns in payment processors like Visa and Mastercard.

We're in the midst of a K shaped economy in my opinion. Meaning the upper income earners are still spending at will, which is why you see companies like BRP Inc (rec vehicle producer) and Aritzia (mid-tier fashion company) doing well, while Quick service restaurants like Chipotle, Wendys, etc are doing poorly. One targets people with money ,the other targets lower income consumers.

Because lower income consumers make up the majority of the economy, we have a bit of uncertainty.

In my opinion, use this time to take advantage of discounted valuations in the payment processors. They're outstanding long-term buy and holds.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on December 8, 2025 11:56 am