what is the fair value of CJT.TO

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what is the fair value of CJT.TO? Got in near 100 and it keeps going down. I won’t want to make this a big position in my portfolio so averaging down doesn’t make sense. What price would be a good price that would be fair value where the market knows they will grow double digits soon?

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Asked on March 5, 2025 3:16 pm
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Fair value is primarily driven by how much you think the company can grow. Someone who is more bullish on Cargojet may have a higher fair value than someone who is fairly bearish on the company.

For me, the company is trading at substantial discounts to the industry averages and large discounts to historical averages. Even if we look to the company's 5 year historical average EV/EBITDA of 8.69x and we adjust this down to a reasonable level because in 2 of those 5 years it would have been realizing unsustainable shipping demand, lets say 6.5x EV/EBITDA, the company is trading at a near 20% discount to that valuation.

However, we also need to zoom out to a certain degree and understand that price movements over a week or two time period, especially when they really aren't backed by any sort of fundamental change (earnings, for example) are just something we're going to have to live with.

The markets are seeing some substantial volatility right now and large drawdowns. 2 weeks ago the NASDAQ was up by 2%. Fast forward to now and it's down nearly 9%. Even the TSX, which is typically considered a lower-beta index than the S&P and NASDAQ, is down nearly 5% in two weeks. When we think of the constituents of the TSX 60 being large pipelines, banks, railroads etc with low beta and incredible economic moats, it is really not surprising to see a company like Cargojet, a small cap company, trading downwards more than the index.

When you see this type of volatility on the markets, you are likely not going to see many stocks saved from an overall selloff.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on March 6, 2025 12:40 pm