What’s going on with KEY?

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Asked on November 5, 2020 1:48 pm
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Hi there,

You question is a little vague - but i'll do my best to answer. Today the stock is down by a couple of percentage points and over the past 3 months it has been in a steady downtrend. The entire midstream industry (pipelines) have followed a similar pattern over the past 3 months. All of lost value in the mid-teens and there is overall weakness in the industry. Worth nothing - Keyera has actually been one of the best performing pipelines over that period.

Yesterday, Keyera reported earnings which missed estimates. This is likely the reason for its daily disconnect from its peers as analysts have come out neutral as a result. There has even been a price target drop, but that is the extent of analysts action thus far but more downward revisions are possible. It was a 'meh' quarter, nothing to get excited about and did raise some concerns. At issue is the company's Gathering & Processing segment which struggled. Given stagnating producer activity, one analyst has even questioned the viability of the segment. That being said, the company does believe in the long-term prospects of the segment and will focus on reducing costs.

Overall however, it was decent quarter. Adjusted EBITDA and cash flows were up YOY and the company's dividend payout ratio only stood at 54% - it looks to be well covered. Personally, I don't believe anything has fundamentally changed that impacts the long-term prospects of the company.

My guess would be that today's dip is a direct, short-term reaction to quarterly results which missed estimates.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on November 5, 2020 2:16 pm