With 4 possible interest rate hikes in 2022, what is a good direction to go with our portfolios?

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Just looking for insight as to what to do with portfolios if rates go up? Possible plays on:
REITS
ETF’s
Covered Call ETFS (to hedge volatility)
Dividend paying Stocks
What sectors will be safest to be in?

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Asked on December 18, 2021 7:00 pm
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That being said, and just a bit of an addition to this answer, I will be reducing my pure-growth holding allocation in January of 2022, and will have more money flowing to the dividend growth portion of my portfolio. Make no mistake, dividend yield means nothing to me as I am a strong advocate for total returns. But, there is a chance moving forward that money flows into cash flow positive companies and out of highly speculative ones. This is exactly why you've seen a set of stocks like our Foundational Stocks vault in the last 6 months, as soon as inflationary fears started to come to light.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on December 20, 2021 9:54 am
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Hey there. Most of the time, this news is well baked into the markets. Rising rates have clearly fueled REITs and financials this year. For example, we rebalanced all of our portfolios back in February 2021 on fears of inflation/increasing rates and added more REITs. They've been some of the best-performing assets of 2021.

That being said, I have bumped my financial exposure over the course of 2021, as I feel Canadian banks and insurance companies are in a strong situation to outperform moving forward. Rates rising next year, if Omicron doesn't wreak havoc, could be an added tailwind and while the news is baked in, stronger than expected results could continue to fuel prices.

The illusion that covered call ETFs hedge volatility is one that a lot of passive income promotors like to speak on, but it's just that. An illusion. If we look to the max drawdowns of many covered call ETFs, they are on par with their non-covered call counterparts. One thing that gets overlooked a lot is the fact that outflows/inflows can impact an ETFs price significantly. During a crash type situation, outflows will be excessive, and prices will fall.

It doesn't benefit retail investors much at all to obsess over cyclical rotations in their portfolio. Look at our list of Foundational Stocks. Despite containing 2 utility plays in Fortis and Brookfield, a telecom play in Telus, and a high growth tech play in Constellation Software, all of which should theoretically struggle in a rising rate environment, that list of stocks is outperforming every major index in North America.

Strong companies prevail regardless of the economic environment. If you deploy a simple strategy of buying strong companies and holding them for the long term, you'll be better off than 95% of retail investors.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on December 20, 2021 9:40 am