your thoughts on the dividend safety of Innergex and its price appreciation potential

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Asked on December 29, 2023 1:04 am
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Hey there,

FIrst off, I'll say that our preference for renewables as been Brookfield Renewables (BEP) - and it continues to remain as such. The company has access to capital through their Brookfield structure that others just don't have, and it has proven to be one of the more stable companies in the sector.

In terms of Innergex, it is one of the smaller renewable companies on the TSX index and as such, will be subject to greater volatility. Case in point, the company lost 43% of its value in 2023, and was the worst-performing company (with market caps above $1B) in the industry.

It also has the highest debt loads of all larger renewable companies and yet, it is average in terms of valuations. More concerning, the company's interest coverage ratio is below 1 (0.74) which again, is the worst among its peers. This also puts the dividend in question as there is little margin of safety when it comes to paying interest on company debt. Payout ratios are negative, but that is because of the lack of profitability this past year. The dividend also accounts for 121% of FCF - but on a normalized basis (future looking), drops to 75-82%. Much better, but as discussed the company has little margin for error here.

The one thing it has going for it, is higher than average expected growth rates. Will it be enough to overcome one of its less-than-desirable financial position? Only time will tell. Just know that while it could rebound quite nicely if it can navigate the current environment, it comes with additional risk compared to its peers.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on December 29, 2023 8:04 am