Any thoughts on crew energy?

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Asked on January 26, 2023 11:02 am
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Hey there,

Not fully familiar with Crew Energy. I typically don't venture too deep into exploration & development or Junior production companies in the oil & gas sector because they usually have high costs which require multiple rounds of funding. They are also more volatile that senior producers and are particularly vulnerable to commodity prices.

Crew recently announced a 4-year plan in which it expects to double production at Groundbirch to more than 60K boe/d. For reference, it expects to hit 31K in Fiscal 2023 which is about the same as this past year. The production increase won't come cheap as its CAPEX plan is pretty hefty coming in at $240M in 2023 alone. They company expects to deliver with cash flows and its $200M credit facility. If, it can succeed in doing so, then it'll be in good shape. The problems come (and this is the case with every junior producer or E&P company) is if costs balloon and they need to borrow more than anticipated. Or, if over the course of its plan, commodity prices drop and it is generating less cash flows. Again, this isn't unique to Crew but is the biggest risk when investing in companies like this.

If it can deliver and keep its debt level below the target range of 1X or less net debt to last twelve months (“LTM”) EBITDA., then it has the potential to do quite well - if commodity prices cooperate of course.

As with any small cap, I'd be careful extending yourself too much. That said, Crew does look to be a pretty solid Junior company that is positioning itself for explosive growth.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on January 30, 2023 5:44 am