Hey there,
Interesting little company. Hadn't heard about them until now. Solid growth, profitable and no long-term debt.
What i did notice was that it is very much depended on oil prices - a $10 swing in WTI price has a huge impact on FCF and so too will WCS differential. So with that in mind, it will be highly volalite and its performance is very much tied to high oil prices - it needs these prices. Below $65, the dividend begins to account for 100% of free funds flow.
Now, prices stay where they are today for a while, this company will do quite well. I like their model and low-decline rates. I also lliek the fact that it can develop and grow for little cost. Case in point, it has a pilot polymer project planned for 2024 and there is no debt required - fully funded by internal cash flows.
It's also got a solid dividend and has issues some special dividends. For a company this small, i'd prefer they not issue special dividends and re-invest in the growth of the company. That said, I know some investors will like that and the buybacks they do. For example, they are only expected to grow production by 10% this year, which isn't bad but I'd prefer to see that strong cash flow be used to accelerate growth.
All that said, this is a good little company. The fact it has no debt and can internally fund projects is huge. It does base guidance on $75 WTI and as mentioned, seems to need prices about $65 WTI to do well. So far, that hasn't been an issue but it is something to be mindful of.
Mat