Hi Chris,
Excellent question. We are actually having this debate right now when it comes to our foundational list. CN Rail has been our selection since the start, but we do find CP Rail's current valuation to be more attractive here. Using Ycharts valuation score as an example, CN is trading at a 2% premium to historical averages, while CP is trading at a 10% discount. When we look at different forms of valuation, we see similar outcomes but it is close. Overall, CNR looks to be fairly valued while CP looks slightly undervalued.
The KSU acquisition is far from over. CP still has to effectively integrate the company into the fold. If it doesn't achieve the stated synergies, it could hold the company back so it still has that uncertainty weighing over it. You also mentioned the proxy fight that CNR is currently bogged down by, so both railways still have some headwinds. I really don't think you can go wrong with either of them. That being said, strictly from a value perspective, CP Rail seems to offer slightly better value today.
I will say, we've been going back and forth on this one and may yet end up with CNR on our foundational list which will be released on January 16. It is a very close call.
Mat