Could you guys talk a bit about your valuation process?

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Are you doing any DCF modelling or is it more comparing multiples to competitors/the industry? When you recommend a stock, are you factoring in a margin of safety or is it just at fair value? Thanks.

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Asked on January 7, 2022 7:16 am
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Makes sense. Thanks for your reply.

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Posted by GratefulDawg
Answered on January 8, 2022 4:00 pm
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Hey there. We don't do much DCF modeling, although we do some. DCF is often dubbed the golden valuation tool for value investors. But the problem with it is, it has a large number of assumptions, and varying inputs by different investors can bring about wild fluctuations in intrinsic value.

A prime example was a chat we were having in the Discord the other day about Amazon. A member had highlighted how they watched a Youtube video where they stated Amazon was overvalued, by a very wide margin in fact. They had low-end price targets in the $600 USD range in the video. This was primarily due to the fact they couldn't see a path to 20% annual revenue growth for the company over the next half-decade. I on the other hand do see a path. So, the values I plug in are going to be much different, and as a result, my price targets are going to be much different as well.

We're much more firmly in GARP territory (Growth At Reasonable Price), much like even Buffett has gravitated towards. Historical multiples, competitor analysis, industry analysis, there are a lot of factors that come into play.

Likewise, the way we approach valuing a bank will be much different than a pipeline. Each industry has their unique quirks and even with the industry there may be differences. So when we value a company, we take whatever approach makes the most sense at that time and for that industry. We don't believe there is a cookie cutter approach to valuation and we never rely on a single method.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on January 8, 2022 3:42 pm