Hi there,
As a cyclical company, NTR will go through its ups and downs. In an inflationary environment, commodities tend to do well, but as it subsides we may see a step back. This is what we are seeing with NTR in recent months as the price of retail fertilizer has dropped month over month by as much as 5% in February . That said, it is one of the best potash stocks in the world and one of the few reliably publicly traded in the industry.
At only 7.7 times forward earnings - it looks decently valued here trading at a double-digit discount to historical averages. The company is also a reliable dividend payer and owns a 5YR dividend growth streak. A dividend that is well covered by earnings and cash flows and that has ample room to continue growing in the coming years. On a macro level, shipments out of russian/belarus are still negatively impacted by the war and the anticipation is for a tight market for the balance of the year. That means potash, nitrogen and phosphate prices are likely to remain elevated over the near term despite short term volatility. Nutrien is well poised to benefit from this.
I'd have no problems with taking a position in NTR today but that said, one must be comfortable with ongoing volatility.
Mat
(I am long NTR)