Is now a good time to open a position on long term US bonds? TLT specifically

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I’ve been looking at TLT and thinking this might be an unique opportunity to take advantage of high interest rates with market timing. There is potential for capital appreciation. Historically interest rates should come down but I’m hoping to get your expert opinion on this.

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Asked on August 10, 2025 7:56 am
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This is not expert advice but I have a large position in 5 - 10 year US corporate bonds. This is based on the US economy slowing which seems to be happening from all economic indicators. TLT is 30 year bonds which I think are risky because they could sell off on fears of inflation.
(Warren Hansen at August 10, 2025 9:06 am)
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You are right in the fact that there could be potential for capital appreciation. After all, bonds move inversely with interest rates and the longer the maturity, the more susceptible they are to movements. A small drop in rates can have a big impact on the longer end of bonds.

The only difficulty here is even if the Fed does cut rates the long end of the curve doesn't always follow immediately. As Warren said in the comments, if there is any fears of tariff related inflation or just inflation in general, long-term bonds could fall in price due to selling activity no matter which direction rates go.

Your methodology and idea here is sound. However, going all in one duration of bond, especially on the longer end of the curve, can be extremely risky from a fixed income perspective. If you're looking to add a mix of bonds into your portfolio, I'd be mixing the maturities as well. It could reduce your overall volatility and you could still stand to benefit if your thesis on the long-term works out.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on August 11, 2025 10:27 am
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Thanks Dan and Warren for the thoughts! The idea of mixing bons long doesn't sound bad. Would any of you know of an ETF that encompasses that?
(gurgelph@gmail.com at August 11, 2025 12:54 pm)
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If you would like to create your own mix, you can look to BMO. They have a ton of different bond funds at different maturities. However if you'd like to buy an all in one bond fund there are also a multitude of them, too many of them for me to name unless you give me an idea of what your mix would be. Corporate/Government. Short/Mid/Long term makeup etc.
(Dan Kent at August 12, 2025 8:58 am)