Medical Facilities Corp

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Could you please give your views on this stock.
Being in healthcare not able to understand the reason this stock has dropped in 2 yrs from $16 to $4 and they also curtailed dividend in end of 2019.
Since it is too low right now, would be a huge loss, Is it worth holding if any hope of this going back to previous levels in next 2yrs?

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Asked on September 17, 2020 11:49 am
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Hi Shail,

This is a tough one. Medical Facilities has been absolutely decimated in recent years and this was further accelerated by COVID-19 and the reduced surgery volumes as a result. From what I can tell, surgery volumes are slowly rebounding and analysts are expecting a rebound in Q4 which is historically their strongest quarter. This may lead to a shorter term bounce. This being said, it has a long way to go to recovery and I am not seeing a clear path to returning to $16 per share anytime soon. At $16, it would take a 300% return to reach that level. Not impossible, but even some of the hottest tech stocks haven't pulled off that kind of return.

It does look cheap (PE of 7.54 and below book value 0.79) but it may be cheap for a reason. It has a mixed history of meeting estimates ( 8 of last 12 missed) and the expectation is for negative growth in both 2020 and 2021. That means the company isn't expect to grow YOY until at least fiscal 2022.

The decision to sell for a loss is a hard one. If it is in a non-registered account, you can use that loss against capital gains. The decision is even harder if it is held in a registered, as the loss is a loss and there is no using it to offset anything. The question you have to ask yourself is has the investment thesis changed? In this case, I'm assuming yes based on the purchase from 2 years ago. Secondly, if you sell can you invest the $$ in something that will yield greater returns than DR moving forward.

Answering these two questions should help you make your decision.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on September 18, 2020 4:36 am