Hey there,
I'm not overly familiar with Valeura but do note, this is an early stage production company with limited producing assets in Thailand. So, there are plenty of risks with a company like this. Because it has so few producing properties, if anything happens to their assets then it can materially impact the stock. Secondly, operating in Thailand brings additional geopolitical risks. So, you will see this company be quite volatile just on risk alone.
In reading through their latest reports, it sounds like they are understanding, but still maintaining current year production guidance - not a bad thing, but do question why they are coming under budget and if it will impact future guidance. It is cash flow positive from an operational stand point, which is a good thing however, debt is on the rise. On the flip side, it only has $30M in debt and $121M in cash and cash equivalents, so debt is really a non-issue. You are likely to see plenty of volatility in these areas for early-stage production companies but the company is certainly benefiting from higher oil prices which is allowing it to strengthen its financial position.
I haven't seen much on their site in terms of forward guidance, so not sure if production is expected to grow and by how much in the coming years, but overall it seems like a decent early-stage producer. Is in good financial position, has been making some acquisitions at reasonable prices and generates good cash flow at these levels. Will it hit $3.00? No idea. This will be a very volatile stock, but given that oil prices are high and it hasn't broken through, it'll likely take a boost in production guidance or for oil prices to continue rising in order for it to hit that level over the short-term. Long-term, if it continues to increase production, generates the same level of cash and expenses don't rise faster than revenue, then it should be in good shape.
With these early stage companies, patience is usually needed.
Mat