Hi there,
This is an interesting one - it appears that the Audet family has no interest in selling the company and there is no deal without the Audet family as they control the voting rights. Almost immediately after the latest offer, the Audet family once again came out against the deal. Although other shareholders are urging them to reconsider, it all boils down to their decision.
The deal on the table offers $123 per share for CGO and $150 per share for CCA. If the Audet family has a change of heart, then their share prices should jump in a big way. However, given current market pricing, the markets are expecting them to remain dismissive of the proposal. If the deal falls through, I don't actually see any major price movement. The company is already down from the initial proposal and is almost trading inline with where it was beforehand. Once official, it could lead to a small dip but I no longer think it will be as material as when they were trading close to the previous offer price.
In fact, if you liked CGO or CCA before the current deal, then it may be an interesting time to get in on the stock. Downside should be limited, but the share price would jump if the Audets do a 180.
In terms of the dividend, I don't think it will have much of an impact. As of right now, CCA and CGO are expected to raise dividends at the end of the month along with quarterly results. So, investors will find out soon enough.
Mat