Thoughts on BLDP

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Asked on January 12, 2021 11:46 am
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Hey there. I actually answered a question on Ballard here a month ago. Here was what I said:

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Right now, the company is fairly expensive, trading at just over 65 times sales. There is a lot of anticipation in Ballard's stock price right now due to the rising interest of fuel cells. This is a company that has been around for a very, very long time and has underperformed for decades.

Fuel cells seem to be finally getting their day in the sun. Whether it comes to fruition or not is hard to say.

The company is not profitable, so I generally turn to what I'm paying in terms of price to sales (revenue) to judge a stocks valuation. 65 times sales is a hefty price to pay, and Ballard will need to grow at a pretty decent clip if it is to maintain this valuation.

Here is my overall take on Ballard. The company has been around forever. So if you're looking for exposure to the fuel cell industry, and if it is to boom like speculators say it will, Ballard is a company with a ton of experience, and is likely to be a frontrunner in the industry. I'm cautiously optimistic in the company right now.

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Ballard is trading at pretty much the same valuations now, 63.5 times sales. This is more expensive than Shopify at its peak level valuations. The only difference being Shopify had been putting up consistent 50% revenue growth year over year for 4-5 years.

Ballard has been around for a long time in terms of fuel cells, and for a very long time it's underperformed. Share offerings, disappointing earnings, and as a result lackluster share prices.

This is a company that's grown sales by 9% annually over the last 5 years. Now, don't get me wrong, it's likely to improve this as it signs more contracts and starts providing more products. However, in order for me to be comfortable paying 63 times sales for this company, I'd want to see it increasing revenue at 5X that rate, minimum.

Whether or not it can do so, I'm not sure. That's why I remain even more cautious, and less optimistic than I was in that original answer.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on January 12, 2021 1:52 pm