Thoughts on Kneat (KSI.V) and the most recent run up?

0
0

KSI.V recently ripped from $2.15 to $2.82.

What do you consider fair value for this stock and what is your commentary on the future outlook ?

Marked as spam
Asked on December 31, 2020 9:41 pm
1 views
0
Private answer

HI there,

The big jump in KSI's price is because it signed a Top 10 Biopharma company to its SaaS platform. It has been selected to be 'the preferred solution to deliver on the site's e-Validation goal". Worth noting, this is not a company wide-adoption, but simply the preferred solution for this particular site. It does however expect to "expand to other processes and sites globally" in the future. While the signing of a Top 10 BioPharma is a big deal - it is not the first time. In fact, if you take a look at its corporate presentaion on its website (which is woefully outdated - 2018) - it already had several top 10 pharma customers.

In terms of valuation, it is very difficult with these microcap stocks. Over the past twelve months, it has only generated ~$5M in revenue and it is not clear what kind of impact these site-to-site deployments will eventually have. Once again, I circle back to that presentation and despite having several top 10 pharma customers, it only generated $3.9M in 2018. This means, one would likely have to wait until the next quarterly results to get the full picture on what kind of impact this particular signing will have.

The good news is that it is winning clients, and I like the aspect that it operates in a nice market. I am a big fan of companies that have disruptive technologies, and those that are able to zero-in and focus on a particular market. Analysts have a one-year price target of $3.18 per share, which implies around 12% upside from here. Of note, only 3 analyst cover the company and they expect revenue to reach ~$12M next year. This would give it a valuation of 15.8 times forward sales - which isn't outrageous. It is a pretty interesting company, and one that has had success growing revenue YOY and QoQ. It isn't cheap, but it isn't expensive either if it achieves triple digit growth rates as expected.

Mat

Marked as spam
Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on January 1, 2021 3:59 pm