Thoughts on PLAY going forward

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Looking for some thoughts and opinions on Dave and Busters (play), after a steep rally, price has gone above what it was trading at the year before. And this last earnings report, went above expectations but still a massive loss in revenue. Trying to decide whether i should take the money and go else where, or stick around to see if theres anymore upside in years to come.

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Asked on April 13, 2021 8:52 am
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Absolutely, thanks for the insight Dan!

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Posted by chad 50emailspecial
Answered on April 15, 2021 8:41 am
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The pandemic obviously rocked this company hard, revenue practically collapsed from $1.355 billion to $436 million.

Company doesn't look like it has taken on much debt year over year, and realistically it should be able to rebound as the US economy reopens due to vaccination efforts.

If you're someone who looks into it, the balance sheets on these companies at quick glance, will look poor. This is because under current liabilities, they will have a ton of deferred revenue, which is deemed revenue they have received for a service they will provide later. I'm having trouble finding where PLAY's definition of this is, but in companies like this, it is almost always gift cards.

The company "looks" overvalued if we go off a trailing twelve month basis. This is because people are paying for forward based valuations. Lets use a little example from PLAY.

It made $436 million last year. So, on a trailing twelve month basis, it's trading at 4.76 times sales. Which, is likely setting off alarm bells in terms of what it typically trades at. In fact, the company's 5 year median price to sales ratio is 1.75. So on that basis, it looks extremely overvalued.

But when we look on a forward basis, which is what we SHOULD be looking at, especially for a company that was hit so hard by the pandemic and is undoubtedly going to see a big rebound year in 2021, it's trading at only 1.9 times forward sales, which is not much higher than its historical averages.

Likely most of the recovery is soaked up in the stock's current price, but it might still have a bit of momentum just based of reopening. If the US continues to accelerate vaccine rollouts and get back to normal, there is likely to be some strong earnings reports from Dave and Busters moving forward.

However, if the vaccine were to prove ineffective against a variant, or something else where to keep its doors shut, it would be crazy volatile in terms of price.

Hope that provides some insight on the company's valuations and how they MIGHT not be as crazy as you first thought.

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Posted by Dan Kent
Answered on April 13, 2021 2:38 pm