HI Andy,
The general consensus is that CVE is over paying for HSE as it is a better and more efficient operator. This is why CVE's share price has suffered. On the flip side, one can make the argument that CVE's team is best positioned to clean up HSE operations. However - bottom line is that the future of CVE's share price will be dependent on the demand for, and the price of, oil. This is a company whose fortunes are tied to demand and prices.
Once the merger is complete, it will be all about execution. The company's balance sheet will be a little worse off (due to absorbing Husky's debt) but if the company can achieve the stated synergies ($1.2B) then it will be well positioned. However, the risk here is that synergies aren't achieved, or that it takes much longer to achieve them. We remain neutral on the entire industry, a position that hasn't changed for some time.
Mat