what do you think of Acadian timber

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Is it a buy?

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Asked on January 16, 2023 10:09 pm
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Hey there,

Acadian is a decent option for exposure to forestry products like softwood and hardwood lumber. Naturally, it'll be subject to cyclicality and will move with the ebs and flows of commodity prices. It has been a very strong performer over the past year in large part due to strong lumber prices. Today, it looks cheap trading at only 13.56x earnings and below book value (0.93). That said, estimates are for negative growth next year and forward estimates rises to ~17 times earnings. In reality, the company is closer to fully valued when one considers negative growth.

Furthermore, there is some real concern about the companies ability to pay a dividend. It missed pretty significantly last quarter as limited contractor ability impacted harvest levels. Since the dividend accounts for 85% of earnings and earnings are expected to shrink, we are likely to see this number rise. Furthermore, it is paying out more than 150% of FCF in the form of a dividend. This means, that it actually needs to finance in order to sustain the dividend. While the company's 7%+ yield isn't at risk just yet and they recently re-affirmed the dividend, I certainly would not consider it to be safe and the payout ratios such as they are, are not sustainable over the long term.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on January 18, 2023 5:16 am