What do you think of this stock on the Otherside of the border? Nio

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Asked on July 22, 2020 6:11 pm
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Thx mat for you insight. I bought this stock cheaper so i will probably take my profit’s

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Posted by Cedrick Kendall-dumas
Answered on July 24, 2020 12:11 pm
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The timing of this answer proved interesting - NIO is down big in pre-market because China has ordered the closure of the U.S. Conselate in Chengdu. This is the perfect example of the added geo-political risk with this stock.

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on July 24, 2020 6:42 am
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HI there,

Sorry for the delay in answering - our priority is to Canadian-listed tickers.

In terms of Nio, this is definitely one of those momentum stocks. The company's stock price has soared in large part because Tesla is lifting the entire EV industry. NIO still has plenty to prove - Tesla has a head start and is now starting to be profitable. NIO is a ways away from this.

It is very difficult to value companies such as NIO. They have considerable capex requirements and can operate for years at a loss. Some will make out ok (see Tesla), others may struggle and risk bankruptcy. There were some concerns about its financials in recent months, but those have since abated with the $1.5 billion Chinese credit line. Speaking of which, NIO is also a Chinese company which brings with it additional trade risk considering the current status of government relations worldwide.

The company is seeing strong demand for its vehicles as unit deliveries increased by 179% in June. It has a spotty history of vehicle sales, and saw units drop last year. Granted, the popularity of EV and demand seems to be on an upswing and we may finally be on the edge of a new era. There is definitely room for multiple players in the EV industry, Tesla won't be the only EV car producer. However, we are still in the early stages and it is not yet clear which will emerge as legitimate competitors. This being said, NIO is certainly emerging as one.

It is also worth noting that short term indicators point to further downside as selling pressure is increasing. In fact, all the usual technical momentum indicators firmly in bearish territory. This means, that the downwards pressure is not likely over.

An investment in NIO is for the aggressive investor with a higher than average risk profile. Expect considerable volatility as the industry is in its early stages.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on July 24, 2020 5:23 am