What is the short term outlook for the Lumber sector (incld Building Materials)

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Lumber prices recently have had a decent downturn since its steep upturn. My thesis is that in the short term lumber demand will continue even if supply evens out, as demand from the USA will continue or increase in the short term. My understanding is that the US /Canada relationship in the past has been difficult. What are your thoughts on the Lumber Sector and its impact on stock price. West Fraser is getting good reviews. Any recommendations? Thanks gayle

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Asked on July 17, 2021 12:51 pm
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Hi Gayle,

We typically don't provide short term outlooks - commodities such as lumber are notoriously difficult to predict. Lumber reach multi year this year but over the past month, they have already wiped out all their gains this year. In fact, the price of lumber is now negative year-to-date - which would have been unthinkable just a couple of months ago. If prices remain depressed at these levels, I'd expect further downward pressure on lumber stocks which are for the most part, still in positive territory on the year.

We also have no way of knowing how the USA/Canada lumber disputes will look like in the future. They have been at each other for over a decade and there are no signs of it resolving anytime soon.

West Fraser is certainly one of the better ones to own, as is Stella Jones (SJ) - however, you'll be sure to experience volatility with both. They will rise and fall with the price of lumber itself - which as mentioned, is now down from the start of the year. Prices in this area move fast, which makes them very difficult investments.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on July 17, 2021 4:44 pm