Hey there,
While it has one of the lower CET 1 ratios - it is still decently covered. I really don't think BNS will cut the dividend anytime soon despite the fact it also has one of the higher payout ratios. If anything, you are just likely to see below-average dividend growth and/or at worse dividend stagnation. That said, we certainly can't rule out a dividend cut as that is always a possibility regardless how well-covered a dividend might look. All things considered, I do believe a cut to be improbable at this point in time. Have to remember, a dividend cut by a big bank would effectively be a last resort for the company as it would severely impact their market reputation as most Canadians rely on them as dividend stalwarts. If that changes, it is likely investors would sour on BNS and it would take a long time for them to regain investor confidence. With that in mind, I'd expect them to pull out all the stops before resorting to a cut.
Should their situation deteriorate over the next few quarters, then perhaps my outlook would change but for now, we are more likely to see lower growth or a stable dividend vs a cut.
Mat
Mat