The thing with these cyclical companies is they are very rarely buy and holds. I can think of a select few that I would buy an hold, companies like Tourmaline and Canadian Natural being some, but more often than not these companies are going to have ebbs and flows in their share prices because they rely so much on an underlying commodity.
With Nutrien, it is the price of potash. Look the the price of potash, and if it's down, you can almost guarantee Nutriens stock will be down. I've actually attached a chart for you to look at so you can see the correlation.
The success of Nutrien a few years ago was nothing more than the Russia/Ukraine war spiking potash prices and thus creating massive profits for Nutrien. If we want to see those share prices again, we would need a material boost to the price of potash.
I want to buy companies that are strong operators and do not rely on a commodity to drive profits (except for very few, as I mentioned). Nutrien is an outstanding operator, but is ultimately at the mercy of potash pricing. No matter how good the company performs, if prices sink, the stock sinks.
For this reason, I'd never really consider owning it for the long term. If you're looking to trade the cycle on it, I'm not exactly sure either, because I don't really know where potash is going to move in the next bit here.
