HI Jean-Luc,
First - i just answered a question on Xebec so I'll repeat what i said there: I am holding and not buying right now. I want to see how this all plays our first and want to get better insight from management on their conference call which is expected to take place on March 25. That could mean i miss the bottom (it could also fall further) but I'm ok with that. I'd rather see more clarity before doing anything.
I've said this a few times before - sometimes the best course of action is no action. That will be my approach over the next couple of weeks.
With that out of the way, let's talk about confidence in management which is at the hear of the issue. In November, the company announced a new CFO and In February, it announced the COO was leaving and that the CEO of HydraGear - the company it just acquired - was taking over as head of the hydrogen and xebec Europe segments. Why is this important? If you follow the timeline of events, it is likely one of these two identified the revenue recognition issue and that possibly led to the departure of the COO.
I am completely speculating here, but trust in management is a big deal. Had the new CFO (which used to hold that position at CAE) identified something and they took steps to quickl correct it- good sign. However, it certainly does impact confidence in management. The good news is that is is taking steps to revamp its org structure as announced in mid-February, so it is possible that those 'responsible' may no longer be there. Pure speculation again - but that brings me back to why I am holding. I want to see the fallout here and how they handle the quarterly conference call. That call becomes critically important and will be paying close attention to it.
The thing with Xebec, it has nothing to do with the technology - that is good. Time will tell, but for now I am holding to see how this goes. I know that probably doesn't help you a great deal, but I can afford to sit and wait on XBC right now.
Mat