ZIM Shipping

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Hi,

I have never anything like ZIM, ZIM Shipping. The dividend yield is almost 130%. Is this company about to go bankrupt? It seems to
like even if they need to cut their dividend by 90%? What do you think about ZIM as a very small position?

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Asked on November 30, 2022 5:42 am
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Hey there,

I'm not that familiar with Zim Shipping...but a yield of 130% makes no sense. I am also looking at the yield....not sure why it is coming up at 130% when its $11.80 ($2.95 per quarter) and the stock price is 21.42 for a yield of 55%. Now...upon further review, it looks like the dividend used to 4.75 per share quarterly and is now 2.95 per share quarterly. There is something weird going on with data here (It shows as 130% for me as well on Ycharts). It also sounds like ZIM is a Wall Street Bets meme stock which automatically brings with it additional risk.

Analysts have been revising the price downwards fromt eh 60s to the 20s but bottom line- a yield this high is not sustainable. After digging more - they have a very weird dividend policy that indicates 30% of earnings with an option to 'true-up' the payout ratio to 50%. This is what it paid out in 2022:
Q1'22A - $2.85 (20%)
Q2'22A - $4.75 (30% + 10% Q1 one-time catch up)
Q3'22A - $2.95 (30%)

The estimate is for Q4 is - $0.75 (30%)

So...as you can see...the dividend is already dropping in a big way because EPS is expected too materially drop. Forecasts are for EPS of $1 in Fiscal 2024 - so if it pays out even 50% of that...its only $0.50 per share.

All this to say - if its too good to be true, it likely is. I certainly would NOT be buying it for the dividend even though there is the potential for a large true-up a the end of the year (equaling ~ 7.53 per share) it would equal around $1B and significantly impact its cash balance. Not to mention if they make that large of a payout, the stock price will drop accordingly.

Mat

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Posted by Mathieu Litalien
Answered on November 30, 2022 6:09 am